The Problem With Lazio's Squad
How Squad Structure and Contract Issues will Hinder the Long Term Success of Lazio
Introduction
In my last post, we looked at the makeup of minutes played across Serie A clubs. Using positional peak ages in reference to Tom Worville’s work, we discovered that Lazio notched the second largest minutes played tally by veteran players, only behind Sampdoria. While development status is not indicative of a squad’s ability, an over reliance on veteran players could indicate a closing window on short term goals. Since Lazio are currently sitting outside of the top 4 and are at the end of their “cycle”, missing out on Champions League football next season should be recognized as a failure.
The issue with Lazio stems from the expectations set prior to the season paired with a manager change and lackluster squad. This is not to say there aren’t incredible pieces at the club, but more so a lack of top tier quality across the pitch and on the bench. Below we will look at some of the squad imbalances and contractual issues for the upcoming season.
Data Source
Data for this writeup was sourced from FBRef and Transfermarkt using the worldfootballR package. FBRef metrics reference players, while Transfermarkt is used in regards to the league table. Data referencing contract information was pulled from Wyscout since it is not available through FBRef. The prior article written (referenced in the opening paragraph) sourced data from Wyscout, which may contribute to slight differences in the metrics between both posts. In this writeup, we will focus on outfield players.
Lazio’s Structure
The hiring of Maurizio Sarri in the offseason lead to a restructuring on the pitch. In previous seasons under Inzaghi, the club deployed three central defenders, three central midfielders, two wingbacks, and two forwards. This 3-5-2 / 3-5-1-1 setup under Inzaghi hit a climax in the 2019/20 season, where Lazio finished 4th and qualified for the Champions League group stage for the first time since 2007/08. Sarri changed this to his familiar 4-3-3 setup, with tweaks in roles to fit the personnel at his exposure. It’s important to note that structures/formations are fluid and ever changing throughout the 90 minutes on the pitch. This is being referenced as it provides a bit of insight on the style/role of player Lazio will be targeting going forward.
League Standing
As of 3/09/22, Lazio sit 7th place in the league. They are currently on 46 points, 7 behind 4th place Juventus. The club also sits in 7th from a points per game perspective, garnering 1.64 points per game. With the quality of both Milanese clubs and the quality + form of Juventus, it will be extremely difficult for them to break into the top 4 with 10 matches remainging. Three of their final 10 matches are against teams ranked ahead of them: Roma, AC Milan, and Juventus.
Lazio’s Structure
The hiring of Maurizio Sarri in the offseason lead to a restructuring on the pitch. In previous seasons under Inzaghi, the club deployed three central defenders, three central midfielders, two wingbacks, and two forwards. This 3-5-2 / 3-5-1-1 setup under Inzaghi hit a climax in the 2019/20 season, where Lazio finished 4th and qualified for the Champions League group stage for the first time since 2007/08. Sarri changed this to his familiar 4-3-3 setup, with tweaks in roles to fit the personnel at his exposure. It’s important to note that structures/formations are fluid and ever changing throughout the 90 minutes on the pitch. This is being referenced as it provides a bit of insight on the style/role of player Lazio will be targeting going forward.
Exploratory Data Analysis
Minutes Played
The two images below display minutes played by player in the 2021/22 Serie A season as of 3/09/22. The first image fills the bars by positional bracket (note: players are not tied to one specific positional bracket) and the second image fills bars based on developent status by positional bracket. Development status labels are based on Tom Worville’s work, which you can learn about at The Athletic or Tifo Football.
Looking at minutes played across the Lazio squad, the first thing we notice is that there are 21 outfield players currently at the club with minutes played in the league this season. From this batch, 16 of the 21 players accumulated five 90s played or more.
In addition to this, the club has an extreme reliance on veteran players. The lack of developing and peak aged individuals accumulating playing time highlights the closing window on the short term goal at the club, UCL qualification. Since it looks increasingly likely that they will fall short of this, the hierarchy must identify developing and peak aged players with the thought of sustainability and long term competitiveness in mind.
Below we will look at a few key takeaways by positional bracket:
Center Forward
Immobile is the only player grouped in the central forward positional bracket. He leads the line for Lazio, with Felipe Anderson or Pedro rotating into the position at times. Muriqi’s move to Mallorca leaves the club without another center forward, as the alternatives are naturally wide players.
Wide Attaker
The two winger roles are typically occupied by Felipe Anderson, Pedro, and Zaccagni. Moro, Cabral, and Romero have minimal time played in the league this season.
Center Midfielder
Both Savic and Alberto are the mainstays in the central midfield. The third option in the holding role is a split between Cataldi and Lucas Leiva. Basic has started seven matches, mainly providing additional assistance as a substitute. Both Akpro and Lima have seen limited minutes played in the league.
Center Back
Luiz Felipe is a regular for Lazio and the main staple in the backline. Acerbi has been by his side most of the time, but he has faced injury issues which saw him sidelined for spells of the season. Patric occupies the 3rd spot for central defenders on the depth chart and provides rotational support. Radu can fill in if necessary and has experience playing as a left center back under Inzaghi.
Outside Back
Marusic and Hysaj accumulated the most minutes played for outside backs. Lazzari has been a regular for the club since joining from SPAL but is currently facing his own injury issue. Radu is an emergency backup. Overall, the club does not have many quality options in this area.
In short, the club are lacking quality and quantity in parts of the XI and across the bench. The structure of the squad is not well rounded and is heavily skewed towards veteran players. Pair this with the fact that they’re currently falling short of their ambitions, and we have a situation at Lazio that must be addressed immediately. Before targeting the areas that must be addressed, it’s important to look at contracts to identify where signings are required rather than desired.
Contracts
The chart above shows contract length and age for each player. The line prior to the bubble is indicative of the length of a player’s contract, while the age in the bubble is how old the player will be at contract expiration. To make this clear, we will look at two examples.
Stefan Radu is currently 35 years old. He is on the last year of his contract, which is indicated by the lack of a line leading up to his age bubble.
Basic is currently 25 years old. His line starts at the 25 tick and carries until he turns 29 years old. His contract expires in 2026, so he has 4 years left on his contract once this season concludes.
Before looking at contract takeaways by positional bracket, there are some glaring issues that must be noted. First, 24% of the squad is contracted until the age of 35. Having key players on large contracts until their mid-30s often backfires, as they don’t provide resale value. This approach often comes at the expense of sustainability. Second, either five or six players will be leaving on a free at the end of this season if their contract is not renewed (depending on conflicting contract information in regards to Moro). This includes key players like Luiz Felipe and Marusic, who have notched the 2nd and 5th most minutes played in the league respectively.
Below, we will look at some takeaways by position bracket:
Center Forward
Ciro Immobile is the only natural central forward at the club. Although he is still operating at a high level, it is pivotal for the club to bring in a center forward this offseason. This will give him time to develop under Immobile, while easing his workload as he enters the latter stages of his career.
Wide Attacker
With Pedro approaching 35 years old and the final year of his contract, it looks likely that Lazio will rely on Felipe Anderson and Zaccagni next season.
Jovane Cabral has a contract that expires in 2023, however he is on loan from Sporting. If Lazio do not trigger the option to buy, he will return to Portugal at the end of the season. With the lack of match time since his arrival, I believe it is highly unlikely any clause is triggered.
There are conflicting reports on Moro’s contract expiration, but if the Wyscout expiration is true the club would be wise to give an extension.
Luka Romero is another young wide attacker / attacking midfielder at the club. His development alongside Moro may be pivotal to the long-term success in the wide attacking area for Lazio.
Anderson, Pedro, and Zaccagni will all play a part for Lazio next season. The lack of match time between Cabral, Romero, and Moro leads me to believe that they are not up to par to get into the first team at the moment. Cabral should not have his buy clause triggered, while Romero and Moro should be put on loan if their development does not reach a level which warrants meaningful minutes next season. Considering these factors and the expiration of Pedro’s contract in 2023, the club should be in the market for one or two wide players in the upcoming transfer window.
Center Midfield
The club currently has more central midfielders than any other position on the pitch. If they’re able to hold onto both Alberto and Savic, the main target in this area will be a deep lying playmaker. This target should be competent in the arts defending and passing, which will give cover for attacking fullbacks while also providing passes to the players up the pitch.
Akpro should be looked at as a substitute/squad player whose main contribution is off the bench. His game is very one dimensional, with a focus on defensive duties/ball pressures.
Basic will have a hard time breaking into the starting XI on a weekly basis due to the imbalance it will cause in the midfield if Alberto and Savic remain at the club. He is a solid squad player who can contribute off the bench.
Anderson has not had meaningful match time and if he is not developing enough in the eyes of the coaching staff, another young central midfielder may be brought in to replace him.
Leiva’s contract is expiring at the end of the season. The midfield replacement mentioned in the first bullet point will occupy his role.
Center Back
Center backs will be a pivotal area of recruitment for Lazio in the upcoming transfer window. Acerbi has 1 year left on his contract as he approaches 35 years of age, plus Luiz Felipe, Patric, and Radu will all be out of contract at the end of the season. Losing a player of Luiz Felipe’s caliber on a free is mismanagement of the highest order and echoes events of the past with de Vrij’s free transfer to Inter. The club must be willing to sell high-value players prior to contract expiration if they desire sustainability and long term success. These funds would be reinvested to field a stronger squad for years to come, rather than seeing no return.
If the club has no alternatives ready in the Primavera, there should realistically be 3 signings in this area. This would give the squad 4 central defenders, allow for rotation with an aging Acerbi, and ideally provide a youngster a season to develop training with the first team.
Potential acquisitions should not only be competent defensively but also possess a high level of passing ability. Although we’re seeing this trend across the sport, it is key in Sarri’s system.
Outside Back
The club currently rosters four outside backs: Hysaj, Radu, Lazzari, and Marusic. Of the four outside backs, both Radu and Marusic will see their contracts expiring at the end of the season.
Overall, the outside back positional bracket is the weakest across the pitch. Three of the four players listed would fit much stronger as wing backs, with three central defenders behind them.
At this point in time, it wouldn’t make sense to give Radu an extension. His game time has fallen off a cliff from prior seasons and this trend is likely to continue. Since there are so many holes in various positional brackets that must be filled in the upcoming transfer window, the club may need to extend Marusic’s contract on a short term basis if wages are justifiable. Ideally, the club would have a minimum of two outside back targets to bring in for the upcoming transfer window in the event Marusic doesn’t stay.
Actionable Insights & Conclusion
In summary, there are a lot of holes in this Lazio depth chart that need immediate attention. However, it’s unrealistic to expect the club to go on a spending frenzy this upcoming transfer window. If the club finds itself outside looking in on the UCL, they may be forced to sell a key player to help fund a rebuild. Below, I rank the priority of signings by positional bracket for the upcoming transfer window:
1. Central Defense – Only Acerbi is returning next season and will be turning 35. The club should target three central defenders or extend Patric on a short term contract with a minimum of two signings.
2. Outside Back – The lack of quality and quantity in this area is alarming. In normal circumstances, this would be the main area to address. However, the lack of players in the central defender bracket makes that priority number one. The club may be forced to resign Marusic on a short term basis if alternatives are not readily available at a realistic price.
3. Center Forward – The only natural center forward on the roster is Ciro Immobile. While still highly prolific leading the attack, an injury to him could derail the entire season. The club should target a developing center forward who can rotate with Immobile for the next couple of seasons before leading the line on a more permanent basis.
4. Central Midfield – The main focus in the central midfield is to bring in a deep lying playmaker. This addition will be taking over for Lucas Leiva and must perform at a higher level than Cataldi. The key is to identify a target who can provide defensive support, allowing the full backs to get further up the pitch, while also possessing a high passing ability. This individual is key to the long term success of Sarri’s system.
5. Wide Attacker – I was flip flopping between putting wide attackers 4th or 5th on the priority rankings, but this is predicated on the status of Moro and Romero. If either individual is at a level where they can break into the first team as a rotation player, this positional bracket should be slotted as 5th. However, if they aren’t, the club should bring in at least 1 additional wide player who can rotate with Zaccagni, Felipe Anderson, and Pedro. This target should ideally skew younger, as Pedro will be turning 35 and will be out of contract after next season.
In the next write up, we will analyze data across the top 5 leagues to help identify potential targets in the upcoming transfer window for Lazio. This will be paired with data visualizations such as pizza charts, scatter plots, and shot maps.