Age Breakdown in Serie A
Throughout all of sport, fans constantly debate about the players that make up their favorite teams. Do they have the quality and depth to push for the elusive championship? Can a newly promoted side maximize their output to avoid relegation? Below, we will investigate the ages of players making up Serie A squads and dive into the data. This will include minutes played by age, minutes played by development status (using Tom Worville’s peak age study as a point of reference), minutes played across various positional brackets, and minutes played by development status and team.
Why is this important?
Player ages and development status are extremely important across all sports. However, this is magnified to another level in European football. American sport teams are rewarded with a stronger draft pick based on worse performances from the previous seasons. This allows for an inflow of youthful talent, with teams often selecting the highest quality youth player for a specific need. Teams can also trade players for another team’s draft picks, allowing for an abundance of youthful talent to come in and develop at once.
European football doesn’t share this dynamic. A team that may be aging and performing at a lower level could be susceptible to relegation. An older team that just experienced relegation could face a variety of issues, but one that is constant is financial struggles. Drastically lower revenues paired with players who have larger contracts and poor resale value can lead to a snowball effect that sees a team flounder in the lower leagues for quite some time.
Explaining Data Used
All data for this write up was sourced via Wyscout on 2/16/22. It encompassed Serie A in its entirety for the 2021/22 season. Players were then filtered to only display those still at a Serie A club. This came out to 482 players with 90 features. A couple features were added from the Wyscout presets, which included development status and positional brackets.
Positional brackets lump players in similar positions together. For example, outside backs are made up of players whose main position in Wyscout include “RB”, “LB”, “LWB”, and “RWB”. Positional brackets are listed below:
Center_Forwards = c("CF")
Cen_Attk_Mids = c("AMF")
Center_Mids = c("RCMF", "RDMF", "LCMF", "LDMF", "DMF")
Center_Backs = c("RCB", "LCB", "CB")
Outside_Backs = c("RB", "LB", "RWB", "LWB")
Wide_Attackers = c("LWF", "RWF", "LAMF", "LW", "RW", "RAMF")
Development status lists players as “Developing”, “Peak”, or “Veteran” based on their age and the position bracket they’re in. This was done referencing Tom Worville’s study at The Athletic, which identified peak ages for each position based on minutes played. A writeup on the study can be found at https://theathletic.com/2935360/2021/11/15/what-age-do-players-in-different-positions-peak/.
Before moving any further, it’s important to establish two things. First, as the modern game continues to progress, we will continue to see fluidity amongst positions. The groupings made aid in data analysis, but players are not tied down to any positional listing on any platform. Second, player development is non-linear and development status labels are not indicative of guaranteed talent progression. Look no further than Fabio Quagliarella’s 26 goal season at the age of 36, earning him the Capocannoniere.
Exploratory Data Analysis
To start, we will look at total minutes played by age across Serie A. The vertical dashed red line indicates the average minutes played across all ages.
From the image above, we can see that the average minutes played across all ages are 20,354.04 minutes. Ages 21 through 30 all have total minutes played above the league listed average. The bulk of these minutes are coming from players aged 24-27, which is a positive for the league as this is when players tend to be at their peak across most positions. Players aged 24 accumulated the most minutes played, with 50,008.
Players aged 27 accumulated 45,274 minutes played. Each year added from that point sees a reduction in minutes played, with the exception of age 38. From 27 onwards, the largest dip comes from the 27 to 28 year old bracket with a difference of 11,469 minutes played.
When breaking down by the development status brackets made using Tom Worville’s peak age research, we see the following breakdown:
Veteran players have 185,626 minutes played. This makes up about 40% of total minutes played.
Peak players have 134,443 minutes played. This makes up about 29% of total minutes played.
Developing players have 148,074 minutes played. This makes up about 31% of total minutes played.
Since veteran ages can start as early as 27 (in the case of center mids and outside backs) and 27 year olds make up the second most minutes played across all ages, we can see why veterans would accumulate the most amount of minutes. However, with the wealth gap increasing between the Premier League and the remainder of the top 5 European leagues, I believe it will be important for Serie A teams to cut back slightly on the reliance of veteran players with a focus on increasing the percentage of minutes played by peak/developing players.
When we evaluate minutes played by position bracket and development status, we confirm what we thought in the previous paragraph. The outside back and center mid position brackets relied on veteran players the most, in part because the “Veteran” age threshold is the lowest. As the role of outside backs continues to progress and Serie A clubs continue to hire managers who play a progressive brand of football (Empoli, Sassuolo, and Fiorentina standing out this season), I believe young, dynamic outside backs will be high on teams lists of demands.
This trend of attacking outside backs has been well established by the larger clubs. Teams such as Atalanta and Internazionale utilize their wing backs to create advantages in the attacking half of the pitch. Likewise, Napoli and AC Milan will push their fullbacks much higher up to play a role in the attack. This adoption down the table can be seen in players such as Aaron Hickey, Wilfried Singo, and Fabiano Parisi. All three are currently labeled as “Developing” but should continue this trend of attacking outside backs despite playing for clubs further down the table.
Another key takeaway from this graph is that both wide attackers and center backs see the largest portion of minutes played by “Developing” players. While center backs tend to fit the narrative of Serie A (the league has historically produced central defenders of the highest caliber), it’s great to see youth given time on the attacking side of the pitch. This is magnified by the fact that Serie A has become a league which sees an abundance of goals per match in recent years. Below we can see a list of players classified as “Developing” who many will recognize as being of a high caliber at a young age:
Wide Attackers
Federico Chiesa - Juventus
Rafael Leão - AC Milan
Nicolò Zaniolo - AS Roma
Mikkel Damsgaard - Sampdoria (Injury issues plagued current season)
Nicolás González - Fiorentina
Center Backs
Matthijs de Ligt - Juventus
Alessandro Bastoni - Inter
Fikayo Tomori - AC Milan
Gianluca Mancini - AS Roma
Merih Demiral - Atalanta
Gleison Bremer - Torino
Luiz Felipe - Lazio
Marash Kumbulla - AS Roma
While all the names listed are well known around the sport, it’s a great advert for the league to have such a wealth of young talent spread across a variety of clubs in these position brackets. In future writings, I hope to dive into the metrics of some players not as well known outside regular observers of Serie A.
Lastly, we will look at a graph which displays minutes played by team and development status. This will give us some insight on where clubs are in their “cycle”. The dashed lines that run horizontally across the graph display the average minutes played for each development label. The colors coincide with the respective label.
Seven Sisters - Atalanta, Inter, Juventus, Lazio, Milan, Napoli, & Roma
Atalanta, Inter, Lazio, and Napoli all look to have a team structure with the objective of accomplishing their goals now. Players classified as “Veteran” make up the largest share of minutes played, while “Developing” players are the least by a fair margin.
Lazio may be on the verge of a rebuild. They have the second largest minutes played metric by “Veteran” players in the league, while still sitting outside of the top 4. Although they are only 4 points off a UCL position, they have only finished in the top 4 once in the last 6 years. At the time of writing this, they are also overperforming their xG metric more than any other Serie A team this season. They currently have 53 goals scored against an xG of 37.65. This offseason should see rigorous squad evaluation and younger talent brought in.
Juventus, AC Milan, and Roma have a balance between all the development status labels, with “Developing” players making up the most minutes played for Milan and Roma. AC Milan continues to announce extensions for key young players such as Theo Hernández and Rafael Leão which should see them maintain their position near the top for a prolonged spell, pending money continues to be spent wisely. Juventus also continues to build towards their next title winning cycle, which is evident with additions such as Vlahović (22 years old) and Denis Zakaria (25 years old). Furthermore, the transfer of Nicolò Rovella from Genoa will see the 20 year old arrive at the club next season. A midfield consisting of Zakaria, Locatelli, Rovella, Rabiot, McKennie, and Arthur has an average age of 24. Lastly, Roma have the weakest squad of the trio. With the rise of clubs such as Fiorentina, it will be pivotal for the new ownership to invest wisely in the upcoming transfer market.
Mid table; Placed 7th - 13th
The teams currently sitting in 7th-13th in the Serie A table as of 2/23/22 are Fiorentina, Roma, Hellas Verona, Torino, Sassuolo, Bologna, and Empoli. The order of teams listed is the order of their place in the table from 7th to 13th.
With the exception of Hellas Verona, all mid tables club utilize “Developing” players more than the league average. The utilization of youth by these clubs should establish one of two things. First, a core group of young players who will grow and improve as they enter their peak. These players will become the foundation for these clubs as they continue to build competitive squads that push to challenge the Seven Sisters. Second, pieces from this wave of youthful midtable talent can be sold to larger clubs to generate revenues. If spent wisely, the funds can be invested in club infrastructure and player recruitment to increase overall competitiveness of the squad.
Hellas Verona and Bologna are the only 2 who deploy “Veteran” players more than the league average. While Bologna amassed the most minutes played from “Developing” players in our bracket (also second in the league when it comes to “Developing” players minutes played), Hellas Verona lacks in that category. While they have fared remarkably well transitioning from Ivan Jurić to Igor Tudor, I believe the club should identify young talent in the next transfer window to continue growth and sustain competitiveness for a prolonged spell.
Empoli, who was just promoted from Serie B, seem to be a force for the future. Their reliance on “Developing” and “Peak” players paired with their progressive style of football is a breath of fresh air for a league which often sees a massive gap in divisional talent.
Fiorentina, Roma, and Sassuolo all have a healthy balance across development status labels. This structure should give them a healthy blend of competitiveness and sustainability. As stated before, Roma needs to improve their squad to increase competitiveness with the rest of the Seven Sisters.
Bottom of the table; Placed 14th-20th
The teams currently sitting in 14th-20th in the Serie A table as of 2/23/22 are Sampdoria, Spezia, Udinese, Venezia, Cagliari, Genoa, and Salernitana.
Sampdoria will need significant restructuring to maintain their status in Serie A long term. The club rely on “Veteran” players more than any team in the league while having the fewest and second fewest amount of minutes played for “Developing” and “Peak” players, respectively.
Genoa and Salernitana occupy the bottom two places in the table. A common theme is that both rank in the bottom 4 when looking at minutes played by “Peak” players. Both teams have yet to break the 20 point threshold in the league.
Venezia and Spezia have a similar structure to Empoli in the sense that they are relying on “Developing” and “Peak” players, while making up the two lowest minutes played by “Veteran” players. I believe this is for one of two reasons. First, if the clubs manage to stay in Serie A, they will have a younger squad that continues to garner experience at the highest level in Italy. Player development paired with new recruitment in the offseason should improve their domestic competitiveness, in theory. Second, if either of the clubs were to be relegated, they would not be bogged down by an aging squad. “Veteran” players may begin to see a regression in their abilities and will also be more difficult to sell off in case revenue generation is needed. Having players who are on the younger side will allow the clubs to sell pieces off post relegation to raise funds which can then be reinvested for a more competitive squad in Serie B, while maintaining select pieces who can help them bounce back to Serie A.
What’s Next?
In future writeups, we will take a deeper dive into the players that make up a few of these squads. The first that jumps to mind is Lazio, as they are expected to achieve a top 4 position while lacking in “Developing” and “Peak” players. Their gamble for immediate results can backfire if they find themselves on the outside looking in.
On the other end of the table, I hope to do a writeup on Sampdoria’s squad. Their squad structure nearly parallels Lazio, but they find themself 4 points off the relegation zone. An aging squad that is relegated will have an extremely difficult time bouncing back to the top flight without significant investment. Such a scenario would be devastating for the city of Genoa, who may see both clubs playing each other in the second division for the first time since the 2002/03 season. With that being said, I believe the club will stay up to live another day in the Italian top flight.